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	<title>Cale In The Keys &#187; risk</title>
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	<description>Portfolio manager Cale Smith on investing, Spoke Funds®, and Islamorada in the Florida Keys.</description>
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		<title>Island Investing: Risk, Take Two</title>
		<link>http://www.caleinthekeys.com/2010/03/06/island-investing-risk-take-two/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=island-investing-risk-take-two</link>
		<comments>http://www.caleinthekeys.com/2010/03/06/island-investing-risk-take-two/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Mar 2010 19:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Cale</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Island Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[My column in today&#8217;s Keys Weekly. Q. How should I think about risk when investing in stocks? A. Risk is a highly theoretical, strongly debated topic when it comes to investing. I wrote a partially tongue-in-cheek answer to this question last fall, but I’ll try again without the lame humor. When it comes to investing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My column in today&#8217;s <a href="http://www.keysweekly.com/">Keys Weekly</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Q. How should I think about risk when investing in stocks?</strong></p>
<p>A. Risk is a highly theoretical, strongly debated topic when it comes to investing. I wrote a partially tongue-in-cheek <a href="http://www.caleinthekeys.com/2009/06/island-investing-reducing-risk/">answer to this question</a> last fall, but I’ll try again without the lame humor.</p>
<p>When it comes to investing in stocks, Wall Street and academia have traditionally described risk using a metric called “beta,” which quantifies the movements of a stock’s price compared to both the market as well as the price of other stocks. The general rule of thumb is that a beta greater than 1.0 means the stock will fluctuate up and down more than the broader stock market, while a beta lower than that threshold means it will fluctuate less – or even in the opposite direction.  By this logic, high beta stocks are riskier, and low beta stocks are safer.</p>
<p>Here is the problem with that approach, however.  It measures the fluctuation of stock prices, not business value.  Rational investors should not be concerned with stock price changes – except when you can take advantage of them.  The only thing that really should matter is how the stock price compares to the long-term value of the business.  </p>
<p>Relying on beta can fly in the face of common sense.  For instance, Google shares had a higher beta at $260 per share at the end of 2008 then at $700 per share at the end of 2007. Now, I ask you…when was the riskier time to buy?</p>
<p>To value investors, beta is useful only when it confirms something you probably already know – that the stock price is volatile because the company’s long-term prospects are, too.  Otherwise, I think it’s better to think of risk in common-sense terms.  Specifically, what are the odds that you’re going to lose all of your money, or see a permanent decline in your investment? </p>
<p>You should attempt to minimize that kind of risk every way possible – starting with sticking to companies with clear and consistent future prospects. But you’ll miss some great investment opportunities if you confuse volatility in stock prices with real risk.</p>
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