“What The Business of Investing is All About”

February 6, 2010 • No Comments

Clip from Morningstar of Vanguard founder and former chairman John Bogle on how the fund industry can improve and how investors can help themselves.

“[The business of investing] should be about giving honest-to-god, down-to-earth human beings the chance to accomplish their own financial goals.”

Cale

Posted by Cale at 7:00 AM in For Investors

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In Good Company on Compass

February 5, 2010 • No Comments

Below are some recent comments from Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital Partners on Compass Minerals (CMP), which we also own in the Tarpon Folio. Meryl was speaking as a panelist on the annual Barron’s Roundtable (sub. required).

Witmer: My first pick is Compass Minerals [CMP], which trades at 72 a share. It has 33 million shares and debt of $500 million. Recently volatile results in potash have obscured the long-term positive trends in its salt and potash operations. Compass owns perhaps the best rock-salt mine in the world, in Ontario, next to Lake Huron. The reserves are huge, and unlike most salt mines, capacity can be increased easily due to the width of the salt seam. Compass expanded this mine from 2.5 million tons in the 1980s to seven million tons, and it is expanding it to nine million tons. Transportation is cheap and easy over the Great Lakes, to the snowbelt states.

Compass also owns mines in Louisiana and the U.K, and evaporation facilities in the U.S. and Canada to produce consumer and industrial salts. These are used in food processing, water softening, chemicals and agriculture. Compass has the leading consumer-salt brand in Canada, Sifto.

Barron’s: Is the salt market growing?

Witmer: Volume usage grows just 1% to 2% a year, and pricing grows about 3% a year. But Compass’ revenue has grown 11% a year, and its profit 14%, since 2003. That is because the company has one of the only easily expandable mines, and captures most of the growth in the rock-salt market. The salt industry has consolidated, with just a few players selling a product that is economic to sell only to a limited geographic area.

Compass also produces sulfate of potash, or SOP. It is a specialty fertilizer that typically sells at a premium of $150 to $200 a ton to commodity potash. This potash is used to grow green vegetables, avocados, pecan and citrus trees, potatoes and other specialty crops, which account for 4% of harvested acreage in the U.S. but 40% of crop value. It isn’t used on commodity crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat. Compass produces about half its potash at the Great Salt Lake, using solar and wind evaporation. It is expanding its evaporation ponds, and has leases on virtually all the commercially viable SOP production areas of the lake. It also has a nascent document-storage business in the U.K., with virtually unlimited storage capacity in an old salt mine. That could become a very valuable business in its own right.

Barron’s: Tell us about earnings.

Witmer: There is some variability due to the weather and potash pricing. Compass should earn about $5.20 a share for 2009 and $6 this year. The company has earnings power of $8 to $9 in 2011 or 2012. The stock sells for about 72. My earnings estimates reflect capacity additions, normalizing potash volumes and small price increases in salt. Every 10% increase in the price of salt yields $2 more in earnings.

MacAllaster (another panelist): What is the earnings breakdown between potash and salt?

Witmer: It depends on potash prices, but it is about one-quarter potash and three-quarters salt. Compass should trade at a minimum of 13 times earnings. Our one-year target is 100 a share, or more.

Is Compass sexy? Not at all. Does it have a moat? Yes, a huge one. Like Contango, it’s another firm with a strong competitive advantage based on being the lowest cost producer in a commodity industry.

This site and the above are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing contained here should be construed by anyone as an invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. This site does not contain personalized legal, tax, investment, or financial advice. Users of this site should consult with a qualified adviser to obtain advice suited to their personal circumstances. Any links provided here to other web sites are for informational purposes only.

Cale

Posted by Cale at 7:00 AM in Our Portfolios

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“Just an Image, Not a Vessel”

February 4, 2010 • No Comments

I admit it. I had a pretty good chuckle when I drove by this sign last week.

Photo by Kevin Wadlow at The Keynoter

For some reason, the sub-head of the story about it in the local paper struck me as even funnier. It reads like the voiceover for a really bad movie trailer, no?

Boat ’stolen’ a second time from Tavernier medical center.
This time, it’s just an image, not a vessel.

Mariners Hospital’s benefit boat vanished again before dawn Saturday — one year to the day since a notorious 2009 theft.

But this time, the culprits had to settle for a life-size picture, not the actual vessel.

“The reaction here was amazement,” said Sheila Konczewski, Mariners spokeswoman. “When I got the call Saturday morning, I had to drive in to see it.”

A sign promoting a Mariners Hospital Foundation benefit drawing for a 14-foot Boston Whaler boat remains at the hospital’s entrance, at mile marker 91.5 in Tavernier.

A gaping hole flaps where the photo image of the boat used to be, before a vandal cut it out.

In January 2009, thieves made off with the actual boat, motor and trailer — a package worth $15,000 — from the same spot.

“After that boat was stolen, we decided not to chance again and put up a billboard instead,” Konczewski said.

Both the 2009 theft and the 2010 sign defacement were reported to the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office on the same day, Jan. 23.

If the sign vandalism was intended as an anniversary prank, authorities were not amused. The sign cost the Mariners foundation $935.

“They literally took the boat,” Konczewski said. “They cut it out very well and even left the trailer.”

Thankfully, the recent Bougainvillea Ball was a smashing success in spite of the above, and a lot of money was raised for all the right reasons.

The rest of the article from The Keynoter is here.

Cale

Posted by Cale at 2:13 PM in Islamorada

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Cale Smith is the portfolio manager for the Tarpon and Gecko Folios at Islamorada Investment Management in the Florida Keys.

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